by Aldo Liga
The term Al Iraq is often described as stemming from the verb meaning “to be deeply rooted”, but recent developments have underscored Iraq’s fragility and fragmentation. On 25 -09- 2017, 92 percent of voters in Iraqi Kurdistan voted for secession from Baghdad. The referendum was held in the three governorates that makeup the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), established in 1992, as well as in disputed areas including, among others, the city of Kirkuk, an energy rich multi-ethnic city that produces close to 10 percent of total Iraqi oil production.
While not legally binding, the results of the referendum hold real potential for a deep transformation of the Iraqi state. They also represent a dangerous precedent, potentially leading to a dismembering of modern-day Iraq as Shi’ite and Sunni provinces could also claim larger autonomy. The vote can therefore be placed within broader processes that have placed serious strain on the historical boundaries of Middle Eastern states, particularly pronounced since the outbreak of the 2010-12 Arab uprisings and the advent of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
Authorities in Baghdad called on foreign countries to boycott the KRG and threatened to prevent direct international flights to the region in retaliation for the referendum. Warnings that the vote could unleash new bouts of ethnic violence and complicate the international fight against ISIS soon followed suit. Turkey and Iran have been particularly pronounced in the public opposition to the Kurdish referendum. The two countries are the KRG’s largest external trade partners, yet they also fear an internal backlash from the referendum. This is mainly due to the presence of a significant Kurdish minority in both countries, around 15 million in Turkey and 7-8 million in Iran (compared to the 5.3 million residing in the KRG). On 16 October, clashes between Iraqi and Kurdish forces were reported south of Kirkuk, rising tensions further.[1]
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