Title: The Geopolitics of Iraqi Kurdistan’s Gas Reserves: Challenges and Prospects:
Publisher: The Middle East Council on Global Affairs (ME Council)
Release date: 2023
The strategic relationship between Türkiye and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has developed substantially over the past two decades, including a historic decision in 2013 to build direct gas and oil pipelines without the approval of the federal government in Baghdad.1 The relationship has established a partnership that has had significant domestic and geopolitical reverberations. In relation to the former, the KRG is embroiled in a long-standing legal dispute with the federal government, which has hampered its capacity to develop its energy sector. In relation to the latter, Iraq raised, and partially won, an arbitration case against Türkiye because of the pipeline that allows independent Kurdish oil exports.2 That said, Türkiye long ago came to the conclusion that it can no longer be indifferent to the fact that Kurdistan presides over at least 25 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves and up to 198 tcf of largely unproven gas.3 Türkiye has also drawn on its relationship with the KRG to enhance its influence in Iraq and leverage that relationship geopolitically, as a buffer against Iran and a conduit through which to influence other arenas, like the conflict in Syria. There are, therefore, numerous factors that can either enhance or impede the relationship in the energy sector.
In recent years, an additional dimension has been added to the Ankara-Erbil energy relationship. The KRG has increased outreach to Gulf countries, aspiring to draw on Gulf political support and financing of its gas reserves, and to augment its reach in Iraq and the wider region. This has aligned Erbil with Ankara’s hopes of becoming an energy hub, with Kurdish gas reserves being central to this objective, given the vast gas reserves possessed by the KRG and the investments Türkiye has made in its relationship with the KRG and its partners in Iraq.4 Gulf countries could be critical for garnering regional and global support for Erbil amidst Western hunger for alternative gas sources as the war in Ukraine continues.5 But there are substantial challenges— internal Kurdish political divisions, Baghdad’s pushback against Kurdish energy exports, and the risk of Iranian escalatory measures against the KRG and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
This issue brief explores these challenges and argues that the KRG must walk before it can run as it develops its gas infrastructure, which requires consensus between the KRG and Baghdad, and addressing internal political fractures. Türkiye, the GCC countries, Iran, and the West should form a collective effort to ground Kurdish gas exports in regional dialogue and de-escalation discussions which can alleviate Iranian apprehensions and secure much-needed gas supplies for Iraq’s domestic consumption.[1]